Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x488418b1f210a59a15a53f6ae411129841ca0de0418883d377a11336dbb6c9c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 29c | 361.48$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.35 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 9c | 267.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 191.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed No | 75c | 167.37$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.14 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 8c | 147.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 140.02$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 72c | 123.42$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 35c | 103.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 28c | 103.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 28c | 102.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 99.28$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 15c | 90.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 14c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 31c | 88.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed Yes | 25c | 82.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 27c | 66.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 26c | 66.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c56…3ba4backed Yes | 20c | 63.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 61.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 58.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 20c | 55.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 22c | 53.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked Yes | 23c | 52.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +7.0wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 52.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 26c | 46.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 31c | 33.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 29.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed No | 76c | 15.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 14.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa2…b5cebacked No | 75c | 13.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.