TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,104
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,796

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,104 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes75c1,520$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.9238655.7%215 W · 171 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No14c1,396$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.6138243.2%165 W · 217 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x540e…df8dbacked No72c855.46$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.66825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes14c614.56$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.6510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes73c588.07$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.591,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No9c572.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0688628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No11c393.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.981,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x58a3…c5cebacked Yes79c313.67$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.527748.1%37 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes14c269.92$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.1931748.6%154 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes23c246.65$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.234,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes13c246$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.7768338.8%265 W · 418 L+36.1wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes22c231.26$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.4114919.5%29 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes26c207.22$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.5411438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes38c206.97$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.9542849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No11c200$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.673,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc7b…7a75backed No18c200$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3327129.2%79 W · 192 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed No39c192.01$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1738146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes32c188.43$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.353514.3%5 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.13per pick28cpaid+3.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No39c163.02$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.181,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes28c151.34$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.35,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x371b…8786backed Yes10c151.11$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.35540%22 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No79c134.25$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes15c122.84$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.6230834.4%106 W · 202 L+0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4441…680abacked No51c120.83$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No15c120$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.44,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9629…ee15backed Yes35c119.5$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.97666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+48.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes27c119.05$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.2713254.5%72 W · 60 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed Yes14c118.75$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.5214359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes13c117.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.1926442.4%112 W · 152 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dec…001ebacked Yes22c114.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.15058%29 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes38c113.5$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.2624466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f4e…dba5backed Yes28c106$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+142.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No78c101.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.569,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes38c101.58$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2637150.4%187 W · 184 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No63c101.1$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.531,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes50c100.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6636648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd37…9135backed Yes29c100.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.3517940.8%73 W · 106 L+29.0wins+0.16per pick25cpaid+113.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x5927…ba9abacked Yes14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.228762.4%179 W · 108 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes29c92.14$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.153951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed No20c90$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes56c88.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.554776.6%36 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No15c85.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.792,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe58b…d6f5backed Yes14c82.79$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.133630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No59c82.43$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.812,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No29c81.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.273,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No20c80.89$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.572,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b67…8c99backed No77c73$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.06580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked Yes38c71.01$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9225541.2%105 W · 150 L+22.4wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2198236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No20c69.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.92,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d2…7479backed Yes76c67.55$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5153258.6%312 W · 220 L+45.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No29c67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.515,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No20c66.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.156,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes30c65.66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0711856.8%67 W · 51 L+12.1wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+31.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes32c65.48$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.5242547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No67c64.82$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.652,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4580…4357backed Yes22c64.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.286520%13 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No76c63.06$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7267158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7439…b8efbacked No70c61.85$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3513238.6%51 W · 81 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes33c60.59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.666926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc176…5d01backed Yes36c60.17$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4910463.5%66 W · 38 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes31c58.39$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1639346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No73c58.01$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3977151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes22c55$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.990734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No22c52.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.412,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x436b…6155backed No80c51.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick80cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes67c45.6$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8928742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x17ea…7838backed Yes22c45.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.447057.1%40 W · 30 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+37.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2d8a…bdedbacked No28c43.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126058.3%35 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No46c42.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5789951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x272e…6e99backed Yes76c41$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8416724.6%41 W · 126 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x025e…bb39backed No73c40$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910554.3%57 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a83…497dbacked Yes33c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.834935.2%123 W · 226 L+1.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes25c40$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3010434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No67c38.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3789661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes30c36.69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.689139.6%36 W · 55 L+12.2wins+0.13per pick26cpaid+85.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2470…7ae6backed Yes73c33.21$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.827058.6%41 W · 29 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No62c32.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.832,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed No62c31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2216552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No47c30.44$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.252,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes38c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.525239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No37c27.71$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.132,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bf6…2529backed Yes79c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.323845.8%109 W · 129 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7374…38ffbacked No75c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.755969.5%41 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No72c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1850860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58f…cec8backed Yes61c24.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.59771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No71c22.47$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.914,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69a7…7fd5backed No70c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.46473.4%47 W · 17 L+0.2wins0.00per pick73cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes78c20.87$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.51,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No77c17$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1546857.3%268 W · 200 L-22.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes61c16.56$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.479947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes79c15.28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.2843540.5%176 W · 259 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.