TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,619
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,104

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,619 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x55ca…498fbacked Yes1c1,052$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.53357.6%19 W · 14 L+7.0wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+53.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No63c582.52$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.9581558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa982…6fd1backed Yes16c431.82$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.293540%14 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes21c411.43$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9710,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No77c400.61$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8850860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes14c333.13$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.283,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes36c290.24$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10564446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes34c254.3$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.594,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed Yes36c221.75$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.8314359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1214113.5%19 W · 122 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes24c200$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9568338.8%265 W · 418 L+36.1wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes9c181.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.968247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked Yes28c166.92$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2931748.6%154 W · 163 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed No79c160.24$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6514957.7%86 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeec7…2fa1backed No65c151.11$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.59785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick57cpaid+53.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes7c150$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1056627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes26c140.64$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.231,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes31c133.52$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.124,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dec…001ebacked Yes38c132.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505058%29 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes21c121.46$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7630834.4%106 W · 202 L+0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed Yes35c121.42$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.510432.7%34 W · 70 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No71c116.45$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.111,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes26c115.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2511438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes13c115$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9547738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No77c112.66$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.561,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes13c108.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.052,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ec6…b459backed Yes13c108$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.938146.5%177 W · 204 L+19.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No74c106.98$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.725,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No80c106.74$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.652,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes23c103.26$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.763,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes13c101.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.652,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fb4…c6d7backed No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3637150.4%187 W · 184 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x012f…400dbacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2134831%108 W · 240 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No75c98$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.883,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes19c97.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.081679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1225…e17fbacked Yes21c94.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016530.9%51 W · 114 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes15c93.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.412224.6%30 W · 92 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No79c91.6$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.622,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes23c90.77$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6289557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes38c90$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.46,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7c2…e1e0backed No79c89.73$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5717251.7%89 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No75c89.7$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.29,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes46c85.21$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.289146.2%42 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No68c83.85$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9788628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes33c83.1$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.223132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x025e…bb39backed Yes41c82.03$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4210554.3%57 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c48…1c17backed Yes25c81.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1816552.7%87 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No65c80$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61dd…cbd8backed No65c75.78$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.521163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9006…9fb8backed Yes27c70$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.927037.4%101 W · 169 L+12.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x371b…8786backed Yes21c66.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.685540%22 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No71c62$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.782,06774.6%1,542 W · 525 L+23.8wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed Yes38c60.77$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0918240.1%73 W · 109 L-16.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked Yes23c60.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7826442.4%112 W · 152 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes35c59.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.653,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…fb01backed No72c55.44$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.443871.1%27 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick74cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No70c54.67$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.142,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e61…f87bbacked No74c53.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.952369.6%16 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick75cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa25a…04b7backed Yes22c45.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.121947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No70c45.75$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.562,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes28c44.81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.439,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No70c42.9$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0389951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes31c41.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.821,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes33c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.210434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c56…3ba4backed Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid+42.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbae0…6278backed Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x577e…3756backed Yes31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No76c37.67$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.072,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No71c34.66$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.952,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes32c33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5643559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x546a…1988backed No75c32.34$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.041866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec42…5ffbbacked No79c29.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2615176.8%116 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick76cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x466c…f78dbacked Yes37c29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.73825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-57.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x914d…dd11backed Yes47c29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6210246.1%47 W · 55 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No77c28.77$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No79c28.76$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.182,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No78c27.4$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.992,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No45c27.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.051,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.321,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No78c25.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.572,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xddba…e638backed No74c23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.0640862.3%254 W · 154 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e6…66b7backed No78c22.66$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.146857.3%268 W · 200 L-22.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcef6…2adebacked No75c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3125947.1%122 W · 137 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83dd…1517backed No58c20.69$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.697957%45 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69a7…7fd5backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.66473.4%47 W · 17 L+0.2wins0.00per pick73cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3af9…b4bbbacked No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.26556.9%37 W · 28 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4374…3d05backed No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834151.3%175 W · 166 L-26.9wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.626265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d4d…73eebacked No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.44967.3%33 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfca6…6595backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.61877.8%14 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick64cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0737…e320backed No71c19.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.62475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No80c18.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.771,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked No79c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9415534.8%54 W · 101 L+0.3wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No80c16.73$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.3771057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4708…d2cebacked No73c16.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No75c15.43$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.891,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xecc6…55bfbacked No78c15.38$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.388385.5%71 W · 12 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick78cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No76c14.25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.421,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7c…34e7backed No80c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.618567.6%125 W · 60 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.