Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: DOGSENT vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48844e7ba42ab355c36400d87c7e1634cbf67c01b28c9af10d72cc4745327b46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- DOGSENTof DOGSENT, MODUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed MODUS | 80c | 1,424$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.54 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked MODUS | 19c | 1,400$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.44 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked DOGSENT | 46c | 1,097$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.56 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked DOGSENT | 21c | 918.06$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.68 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a9…3bb6backed DOGSENT | 27c | 728.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.26 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked DOGSENT | 79c | 723.29$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.08 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed MODUS | 66c | 562.92$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.48 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbb…7e44backed MODUS | 21c | 479.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked DOGSENT | 14c | 417.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.85 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed DOGSENT | 19c | 357.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.89 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…6a90backed MODUS | 75c | 352.16$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.12 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed MODUS | 29c | 342.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked DOGSENT | 38c | 323.93$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.92 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked DOGSENT | 46c | 260.06$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.97 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…d03fbacked DOGSENT | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 179 | 65.4%117 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe996…3836backed DOGSENT | 64c | 200$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +33%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked MODUS | 72c | 189.97$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.78 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed DOGSENT | 33c | 148.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ef…840bbacked MODUS | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MODUS | 79c | 126.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…d81dbacked DOGSENT | 33c | 123.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.19 | 563 | 43.9%247 W · 316 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked MODUS | 47c | 91.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 338 | 54.1%183 W · 155 L | +11.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8832…1fc4backed DOGSENT | 47c | 83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed DOGSENT | 22c | 82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 286 | 50%143 W · 143 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed DOGSENT | 78c | 70.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked MODUS | 42c | 68.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 288 | 46.9%135 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed MODUS | 69c | 64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81fe…4089backed MODUS | 52c | 62.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked MODUS | 37c | 61.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked MODUS | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked DOGSENT | 74c | 55.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed DOGSENT | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…21d3backed MODUS | 58c | 51.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 316 | 44.9%142 W · 174 L | -18.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked MODUS | 39c | 51.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked DOGSENT | 69c | 49.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed DOGSENT | 33c | 42.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed MODUS | 54c | 37.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…1ee1backed MODUS | 32c | 32.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 211 | 33.6%71 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…6844backed MODUS | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…8be3backed MODUS | 75c | 14.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: DOGSENT vs MODUS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: DOGSENT vs MODUS (BO3) - European Pro League Group BMODUS won
- Dota 2: DOGSENT vs MODUS - Game 2 WinnerMODUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.