Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4887a67c74994b4d7f333d9305b47db783b008d5ebcde3b5f4e1589d7813a14b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona State Sun Devilsof Texas Tech Red Raiders, Arizona State Sun Devils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 49c | 1,177$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.75 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 50c | 1,047$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.49 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 50c | 896.53$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.33 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.31 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 52c | 503.83$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.34 | 429 | 34.3%147 W · 282 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…e73abacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 267 | 49.1%131 W · 136 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 53c | 423.87$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.22 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 49c | 142.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 52c | 140$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 346 | 49.1%170 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 42c | 129.29$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 50c | 116.24$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 52c | 91.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc2…757cbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 50c | 63.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 558 | 40.3%225 W · 333 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…09f9backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8557…4e7abacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 52c | 54.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 51c | 44.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 70c | 41.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaec…eaafbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 52c | 38.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 50c | 22.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-7.5)this page
- Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-6.5)Arizona State Sun Devils won
- Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-8.5)Arizona State Sun Devils won
- Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arizona State Sun DevilsArizona State Sun Devils won
- Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 151.5Under won
- Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 152.5Under won
- Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 153.5Under won
- Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 154.5Under won
- Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 155.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.