Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x488eaee42867b0337a0de23067568eafc6c54a59121379e70efa429d70ab1391
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 8c | 10,246$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.56 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa0…1a65backed Yes | 0c | 4,539$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 54c | 1,070$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.97 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 33c | 363.15$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.61 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 6c | 238.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 224.02$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 15c | 202.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 38c | 199.93$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.93 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 12c | 168$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.21 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 29c | 158.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 65c | 155.16$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 69c | 149.95$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 102.95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 101.9$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 87.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 78c | 75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…602dbacked Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 37c | 71.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 69.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 41c | 58.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…b86fbacked Yes | 76c | 57.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…5b51backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 33c | 44.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad9…7e66backed No | 70c | 43.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f7…93a4backed Yes | 32c | 41.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 27c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 57c | 39.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 38.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 33.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 44c | 30.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…0988backed No | 69c | 28.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 38c | 26.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 63c | 22.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 63c | 22.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 63c | 19.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 64c | 17.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 78c | 16.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 73c | 13.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.