NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x488f93571d784381f76fa72a8fead642c30377cc7122e4ae7c9df963fa8c6f33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 57c | 7,522$4,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,255.98 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 59c | 1,689$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 42c | 1,580$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.4 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 41c | 1,446$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.31 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 44c | 1,136$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.36 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3a…3246backed Over | 44c | 1,129$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.33 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 42c | 1,126$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.36 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 44c | 866$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.96 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 58c | 720.49$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.12 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…13b6backed Over | 41c | 651.61$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.45 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa089…3401backed Under | 59c | 526.19$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.45 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 32c | 314.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.87 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 79c | 313.75$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.89 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 304.32$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.41 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 48c | 235.6$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.65 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 171.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.14 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 32c | 160.92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Under | 55c | 159.8$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 35c | 146.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Under | 59c | 125.42$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 44c | 122.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.45 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 52c | 96.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 42c | 87.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3915…b03ebacked Under | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…416abacked Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 42c | 47.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Over | 41c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…dc02backed Over | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 57c | 20.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…c7fabacked Under | 57c | 17.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.26per pick | 53cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5this page
- Penguins vs. KrakenPenguins won
- Penguins vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.