NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x556848ff26caea415b1c13ded0559cc1ba198cb25d7e0e85a5a467b5bbbfccfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d4b…7b18backed Over | 54c | 9,500$5,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,370 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +52%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2b…0a52backed Under | 46c | 9,500$4,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,370 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 55c | 5,556$3,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500.1 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…6253backed Over | 53c | 4,600$2,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,162 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…c9fabacked Under | 47c | 4,600$2,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,162 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 3,107$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.19 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 55c | 2,970$1,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.65 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 45c | 2,956$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.2 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 45c | 767.8$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.51 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f5…bc87backed Over | 53c | 450$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…236cbacked Under | 47c | 450$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e82…7670backed Under | 45c | 440$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 45c | 431$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.95 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 58c | 344.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.72 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 290.05$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.89 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 38c | 278$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd440…a32ebacked Under | 45c | 266.67$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Under | 48c | 240$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 45c | 220.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 67c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 45c | 187.28$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.28 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b05…b227backed Over | 52c | 134.4$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 52c | 130.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.04 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 40c | 130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…416abacked Under | 49c | 110$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…807fbacked Under | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 76c | 101.79$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 210 | 60%126 W · 84 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3915…b03ebacked Under | 41c | 88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Over | 55c | 78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 44c | 70.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 129 | 43.4%56 W · 73 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdce5…65d7backed Over | 52c | 70.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 44c | 59.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Under | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked Over | 56c | 47.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 104 | 59.6%62 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 44c | 38.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Over | 55c | 36.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 45c | 29.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 45c | 29.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x886b…73d1backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed Under | 45c | 26.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 66c | 24.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5this page
- Penguins vs. KrakenPenguins won
- Penguins vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.