Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48bfb64d872ae4c49d1eb70c277d224effdc00a6ac87f5a64388ef86dd5300f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 24c | 1,065$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.78 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 727.32$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 388.55$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 8c | 357.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 17c | 279$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 27c | 278.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 268.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 25c | 261.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 193.45$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 174.22$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.85 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 10c | 155.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 119.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 118.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 79c | 109.29$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 19c | 104.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 19c | 101.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 100.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 14c | 99.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 32c | 86.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd102…42c8backed Yes | 14c | 76.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 71.6$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 65.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 64$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 22c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b6…6c51backed No | 76c | 53.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 23c | 51.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 75c | 39.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 77c | 23.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 77c | 17.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 77c | 15.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed No | 80c | 12.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.55 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.