Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a584509829558b24201fa4d2d0d80f7a032a318b789580c6c9f1c4b48610579
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 29c | 382.53$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 300.02$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.01 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 74c | 271.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.31 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 26c | 207.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 139.52$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 13c | 126$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 121.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 13c | 118.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 109.63$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 106.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 27c | 103.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 71c | 90.11$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 25c | 87.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 80.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 27c | 77.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Yes | 27c | 73.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 31c | 67.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 67.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 66.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed No | 76c | 66.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…2970backed Yes | 26c | 58.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 23c | 55.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…c8b9backed Yes | 24c | 53.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 73c | 49.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 42.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 39.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 34.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x852d…f63abacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 22.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 74c | 20.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 18.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 75c | 13.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.