Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73dcc15a44af0fa3e05f59b3f84f0585820b0d9b4fd1cf282f6f5c67dade963d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 33c | 1,104$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.18 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 47c | 648.44$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.35 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 600$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 40c | 277.85$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.62 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 268.2$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.44 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 57c | 254.83$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.09 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 59c | 240.98$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.72 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 208.45$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 52c | 169.95$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.9 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 160.91$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.24 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 47c | 147.8$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 27c | 140.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 52c | 131.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.09 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 131.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 126.78$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 123.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…12d4backed No | 51c | 123.2$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 37c | 110$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 99.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 43c | 99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 37c | 81.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 53c | 71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 62c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 40c | 68.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 41c | 64.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 79c | 63.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 47c | 59.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 40.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 39.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 55c | 38.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 38.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 56c | 37.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 57c | 35.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 34.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed No | 37c | 33.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 32.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 30.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x554e…b670backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 40c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…dec7backed Yes | 79c | 25.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 25.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 43c | 24.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 61c | 23.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 16.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 63c | 16.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.