MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48d4ad66c9f3577362b05605d11c7842bb22d3eb876646d07b6c1812853d87c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 54c | 10,322$5,568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,754.65 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 45c | 8,516$3,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,871.3 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 46c | 6,453$2,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,968.57 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 54c | 1,453$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.3 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 54c | 1,377$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.69 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 57c | 590.74$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.52 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 504.99$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.03 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 450$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.55 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 32c | 367.14$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.25 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 44c | 358$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.52 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 71c | 355$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.95 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 31c | 322.7$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 44c | 317.7$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.79 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 5c | 314.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.99 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 28c | 268.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 65c | 186.86$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.46 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 6c | 173.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.77 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc0…7faabacked Over | 45c | 139.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 66c | 103.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 37c | 102.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…43fdbacked Under | 52c | 87.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 46c | 69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Over | 43c | 59.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 419 | 36.5%153 W · 266 L | -31.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72bc…b24ebacked Over | 75c | 50.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 65c | 48.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 56c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 44c | 40.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 53c | 35.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1812…0db6backed Over | 47c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 61c | 24.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 44c | 24.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)New York Mets won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.