MLB · resolved market

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a994ea652d689cec44c0130bf132f843b54629e8b594650a75b52ecec9ff923

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: New York Metsof New York Mets, Washington Nationals
Resolved: Apr 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $120,980
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $149,245

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,980 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa8e0…ad50backed New York Mets	45c	40,000$18,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21,999.99	311	49.2%153 W · 158 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0767…36b0backed Washington Nationals	55c	34,516$18,984 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18,983.78	77	50.6%39 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e2f…aaf8backed New York Mets	45c	24,834$11,178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,656.33	49	40.8%20 W · 29 L	-2.3wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Washington Nationals	55c	14,056$7,731 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,730.99	2,293	48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L	-24.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Washington Nationals	57c	11,433$6,552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,552.17	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Washington Nationals	55c	8,723$4,837 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,837.38	116	56.9%66 W · 50 L	+8.1wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets	44c	6,315$2,775 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,540.82	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Mets	42c	4,056$1,709 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,346.96	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked New York Mets	44c	4,000$1,760 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,240	217	48.4%105 W · 112 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals	54c	3,144$1,709 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,709.1	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x19d0…e11cbacked New York Mets	46c	3,107$1,421 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,686.32	68	45.6%31 W · 37 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Washington Nationals	54c	3,070$1,658 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,658	306	47.4%145 W · 161 L	-10.7wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Washington Nationals	55c	2,309$1,270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,269.95	920	54%497 W · 423 L	+23.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed New York Mets	45c	2,289$1,030 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,258.95	750	49.7%373 W · 377 L	+7.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Washington Nationals	55c	2,047$1,131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,131.48	2,407	48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L	-62.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Washington Nationals	55c	2,000$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	1,292	50.2%648 W · 644 L	+18.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Washington Nationals	55c	1,909$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,049.95	1,521	48.6%739 W · 782 L	-5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Washington Nationals	55c	1,816$999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999	262	45.8%120 W · 142 L	-17.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals	54c	1,290$697 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$696.85	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Washington Nationals	53c	1,258$661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$661.02	2,389	43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L	-25.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets	45c	600$270 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$330	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Washington Nationals	56c	301$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.56	2,369	47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Washington Nationals	55c	272.73$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	1,708	49.9%852 W · 856 L	-17.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed New York Mets	44c	263.18$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.38	142	35.9%51 W · 91 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Washington Nationals	55c	212.64$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.75	1,769	51.6%912 W · 857 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Washington Nationals	56c	168$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.08	1,569	51.1%801 W · 768 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Washington Nationals	55c	163.64$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	443	48.5%215 W · 228 L	-7.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Washington Nationals	54c	160.43$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.35	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d00…7507backed New York Mets	45c	119.02$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.46	96	42.7%41 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7242…ac6fbacked Washington Nationals	55c	118.97$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.43	131	52.7%69 W · 62 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa24…a75cbacked Washington Nationals	57c	102.55$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.45	87	57.5%50 W · 37 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Washington Nationals	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	1,284	49.5%635 W · 649 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed New York Mets	46c	100$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	591	50.3%297 W · 294 L	+9.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a22…3652backed New York Mets	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1852…76ccbacked Washington Nationals	48c	93.75$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	102	62.7%64 W · 38 L	+10.5wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Washington Nationals	55c	62.53$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.67	2,947	51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L	-34.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets	44c	60$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.6	1,661	43.5%722 W · 939 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed New York Mets	44c	50$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28	1,498	45.3%678 W · 820 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Washington Nationals	56c	49.04$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.46	1,010	48.1%486 W · 524 L	-13.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7307…b257backed New York Mets	44c	45.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.45	81	58%47 W · 34 L	+6.4wins	+0.08per pick	50cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Washington Nationals	55c	45.45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	292	55.8%163 W · 129 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked New York Mets	55c	42.03$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.03	459	52.9%243 W · 216 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked Washington Nationals	54c	41$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.14	192	48.4%93 W · 99 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Washington Nationals	56c	40.1$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.45	252	49.6%125 W · 127 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Washington Nationals	55c	36.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,000	58.8%588 W · 412 L	+26.0wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3169…6dccbacked New York Mets	45c	33.33$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.33	150	45.3%68 W · 82 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Washington Nationals	55c	28.98$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.94	491	58.9%289 W · 202 L	+30.8wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Washington Nationals	36c	27.78$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	841	22.7%191 W · 650 L	-81.4wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets	64c	27.78$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	5,127	54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L	+232.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3d2…380bbacked Washington Nationals	54c	27.49$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.84	93	44.1%41 W · 52 L	-4.6wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3711…7339backed Washington Nationals	56c	26.19$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.67	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ae0…8f73backed Washington Nationals	54c	22.2$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.2wins	-0.36per pick	53cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7198…4213backed Washington Nationals	55c	19$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	46	58.7%27 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked Washington Nationals	56c	18.02$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.09	143	53.1%76 W · 67 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsNew York Mets won
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Under won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. New York MetsYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event