Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: OG vs Aurora (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48d661cd46601ff92b455ec7f1313b8a2dfbf2aa9665f6938a5b8d3929ad5c20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof OG, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8627…fdcebacked OG | 0c | 16,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…6239backed OG | 9c | 7,500$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.5 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…158bbacked Aurora | 66c | 4,700$3,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 69c | 2,625$1,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.12 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed OG | 36c | 2,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed OG | 30c | 1,845$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.38 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a53…cc07backed Aurora | 64c | 1,600$1,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f5…6092backed OG | 36c | 1,600$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…5172backed OG | 16c | 1,288$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…76c3backed Aurora | 76c | 1,020$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.25 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -8.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…9568backed Aurora | 71c | 901.48$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked OG | 27c | 754.13$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.05 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked OG | 34c | 707.24$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.7 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec5…8f77backed OG | 31c | 631.39$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.12 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked OG | 34c | 600$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.86 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked OG | 16c | 568.12$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…4180backed OG | 20c | 545$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked OG | 35c | 443.09$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.45 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Aurora | 69c | 400$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.16 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora | 70c | 307.25$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…7ef9backed OG | 33c | 305.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked OG | 31c | 305.2$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.61 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 29cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked OG | 34c | 299.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 228 | 45.6%104 W · 124 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…db93backed Aurora | 69c | 297.71$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.71 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Aurora | 63c | 244.69$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.27 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora | 66c | 229.95$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…5dfebacked OG | 44c | 229.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed OG | 46c | 217.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x503d…886abacked OG | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 66c | 175.15$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…658bbacked OG | 32c | 160.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bb…7466backed Aurora | 69c | 159.95$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…959abacked Aurora | 69c | 150$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34b3…507fbacked OG | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaae…ec88backed Aurora | 67c | 149.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617f…cde5backed Aurora | 79c | 123.37$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…5bf9backed Aurora | 65c | 123.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10b9…0a9bbacked Aurora | 64c | 117.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8799…0bc0backed OG | 40c | 110.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc579…57bfbacked OG | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed OG | 35c | 98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x937b…1c0abacked OG | 37c | 85.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -53%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa621…7a35backed Aurora | 66c | 80.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed OG | 22c | 74.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed OG | 34c | 71.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb28…02bbbacked Aurora | 53c | 67.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed Aurora | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…b133backed Aurora | 60c | 62.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…ff78backed OG | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2108backed Aurora | 68c | 51.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed OG | 24c | 49.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1605…124fbacked Aurora | 67c | 44.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed OG | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Aurora | 66c | 39.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Aurora | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Aurora | 62c | 32.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 107 | 66.4%71 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…73f1backed Aurora | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…83b3backed OG | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Aurora | 64c | 23.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Aurora | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Aurora | 70c | 22.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d7…9169backed Aurora | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Aurora | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 507 | 57.4%291 W · 216 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Aurora | 66c | 19.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…e362backed Aurora | 63c | 17.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…8d44backed Aurora | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: OG vs Aurora (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group Athis page
- Dota 2: OG vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: OG vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.