Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: OG vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a332b0c3e341e7ef378d668e1bc920075e694f6442779ef104e7cd7d47354f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof OG, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora | 71c | 17,137$12,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,932.4 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8627…fdcebacked OG | 0c | 16,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed OG | 30c | 13,717$4,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,075.86 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked OG | 14c | 11,081$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.02 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed OG | 20c | 8,820$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked OG | 11c | 7,499$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.81 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…47f4backed Aurora | 73c | 6,889$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,889.13 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…e570backed OG | 40c | 4,450$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed OG | 24c | 4,307$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.78 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked OG | 21c | 4,000$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Aurora | 66c | 3,033$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.94 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed OG | 30c | 2,763$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.39 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…0c4bbacked OG | 15c | 2,499$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.62 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 60c | 1,989$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.39 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed OG | 35c | 1,503$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.63 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84a…055dbacked Aurora | 60c | 1,260$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed OG | 38c | 924.14$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed OG | 17c | 861.58$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.22 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a97…66f5backed Aurora | 66c | 832.21$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.26 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Aurora | 69c | 799.99$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora | 64c | 767.3$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.49 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x503d…886abacked OG | 22c | 766.58$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.04 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec5…8f77backed OG | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Aurora | 65c | 483.67$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.86 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed OG | 26c | 481.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.38 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b7…7ffabacked Aurora | 65c | 447.69$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.69 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed OG | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed Aurora | 65c | 399.53$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.65 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Aurora | 67c | 398.51$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.51 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…dd82backed Aurora | 75c | 379.78$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.78 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…0c3dbacked Aurora | 62c | 320$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.6 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…3377backed Aurora | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…41edbacked Aurora | 65c | 284.15$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.45 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce16…d66fbacked OG | 32c | 243.54$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…eca9backed Aurora | 70c | 238.64$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.63 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked OG | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…5dd3backed OG | 14c | 143.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b0…4758backed Aurora | 72c | 128.95$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed OG | 39c | 127.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked OG | 14c | 125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Aurora | 79c | 114.02$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed OG | 34c | 108.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b9…8267backed Aurora | 70c | 106.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Aurora | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…c005backed OG | 39c | 98.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Aurora | 74c | 93.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 64c | 89.73$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…be32backed OG | 31c | 81.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Aurora | 63c | 81.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e40ebacked Aurora | 69c | 70.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Aurora | 60c | 67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed OG | 38c | 60.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 214 | 65%139 W · 75 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b8…c5cabacked OG | 25c | 57.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed OG | 26c | 53.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Aurora | 64c | 52.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf883…b8b4backed Aurora | 77c | 52.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 187 | 64.7%121 W · 66 L | +17.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Aurora | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed OG | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899e…0863backed Aurora | 64c | 46.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 264 | 54.5%144 W · 120 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe8…e9d9backed Aurora | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 70c | 33.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed Aurora | 60c | 30.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Aurora | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Aurora | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Aurora | 69c | 26.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…92ccbacked Aurora | 79c | 25.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a0…12cabacked Aurora | 64c | 22.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…63bebacked Aurora | 72c | 22.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: OG vs Aurora - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: OG vs Aurora (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group AAurora won
- Dota 2: OG vs Aurora - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.