Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: OG vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa40d1cb2f40913d8bcf3d073e7d339182960c134861394c797c2d52370b7cdda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof OG, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $230,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3833…33d1backed OG | 39c | 41,965$16,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,527.95 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora | 61c | 35,000$21,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,650 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed OG | 36c | 15,000$5,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,390 | 82 | 42.7%35 W · 47 L | -8.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8627…fdcebacked OG | 0c | 14,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Aurora | 61c | 6,555$4,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,529.75 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…e570backed OG | 40c | 4,450$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,779.99 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…47f4backed Aurora | 69c | 3,837$2,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.67 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Aurora | 65c | 2,871$1,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.86 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Aurora | 64c | 2,800$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 60c | 2,648$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.27 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 67c | 2,230$1,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.9 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed OG | 35c | 1,913$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.98 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…0c4bbacked Aurora | 64c | 1,693$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed OG | 36c | 1,688$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.84 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Aurora | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Aurora | 60c | 1,249$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.8 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…eb8ebacked OG | 21c | 1,247$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.13 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Aurora | 64c | 1,245$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.89 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed OG | 39c | 1,159$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.08 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora | 62c | 903.44$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.07 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed OG | 41c | 854.88$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Aurora | 77c | 782.28$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.23 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x469f…3d4fbacked Aurora | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Aurora | 64c | 779.38$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.38 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed OG | 36c | 738.98$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.82 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora | 67c | 708.74$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.14 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a97…66f5backed Aurora | 64c | 550.52$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.79 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked Aurora | 59c | 545.59$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.59 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…66ebbacked Aurora | 66c | 521.09$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.17 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…3f01backed OG | 35c | 514.29$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x503d…886abacked OG | 28c | 509.17$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.17 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…19c9backed Aurora | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Aurora | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Aurora | 63c | 499.97$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.99 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora | 60c | 499.82$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.93 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…89d0backed Aurora | 60c | 480$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Aurora | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed OG | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…9ccfbacked Aurora | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked OG | 38c | 353.35$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.16 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Aurora | 72c | 348.07$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.82 | 494 | 55.1%272 W · 222 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 66c | 308.35$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.26 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b8…50d8backed Aurora | 66c | 301.92$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.65 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Aurora | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.15 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed Aurora | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed OG | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Aurora | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2d7dbacked OG | 35c | 289.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…dd82backed Aurora | 79c | 285.82$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f9…db30backed Aurora | 67c | 268.45$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.59 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Aurora | 62c | 267.02$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.02 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked OG | 26c | 257.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…2d98backed OG | 33c | 240$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked OG | 37c | 229.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 194 | 43.3%84 W · 110 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…eca9backed Aurora | 80c | 166.18$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…3377backed Aurora | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked OG | 21c | 155.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed Aurora | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…5714backed Aurora | 78c | 150.31$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 74cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Aurora | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed OG | 25c | 149.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed OG | 16c | 149.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked Aurora | 59c | 145.88$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…12bdbacked Aurora | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 181 | 56.4%102 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f46…cddbbacked Aurora | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 240 | 52.1%125 W · 115 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ece…e3c8backed Aurora | 60c | 109.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Aurora | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked Aurora | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Aurora | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…be32backed OG | 37c | 95.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Aurora | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab05…52e9backed OG | 37c | 86.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…1761backed Aurora | 65c | 81.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Aurora | 66c | 81.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe82d…d96bbacked Aurora | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92f8…0e1fbacked Aurora | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 60c | 76.24$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked OG | 23c | 66.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Aurora | 67c | 63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed OG | 22c | 51.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Aurora | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e4…36e9backed Aurora | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed OG | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Aurora | 65c | 38.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Aurora | 64c | 33.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…04e9backed Aurora | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 341 | 52.2%178 W · 163 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Aurora | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf82d…0e4bbacked Aurora | 60c | 28.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…6de8backed OG | 41c | 26.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9c7dbacked Aurora | 76c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 367 | 61%224 W · 143 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a0…12cabacked Aurora | 63c | 20.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77da…9a99backed Aurora | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x930e…38cfbacked Aurora | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 370 | 18.9%70 W · 300 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: OG vs Aurora - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: OG vs Aurora (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group AAurora won
- Dota 2: OG vs Aurora - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.