Tennis · resolved market
ITF Ajaccio: Lucas Poullain vs Mathieu Scaglia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48f90c178927f431ab9b84f02582f91f3a043901297ac131d6979c0c24a06a74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mathieu Scagliaof Lucas Poullain, Mathieu Scaglia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2903…9203backed Lucas Poullain | 75c | 844$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633 | 1,106 | 60.2%666 W · 440 L | +22.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Mathieu Scaglia | 25c | 574.7$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.03 | 4,992 | 38.6%1,927 W · 3,065 L | -19.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mathieu Scaglia | 61c | 372.2$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.01 | 6,550 | 54.4%3,565 W · 2,985 L | +287.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Mathieu Scaglia | 13c | 278.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.99 | 1,857 | 41%762 W · 1,095 L | -32.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Lucas Poullain | 72c | 270.6$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.16 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Lucas Poullain | 40c | 199.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 6,649 | 46.3%3,079 W · 3,570 L | -38.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Mathieu Scaglia | 62c | 198.3$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.29 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Mathieu Scaglia | 45c | 137.59$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.14 | 6,798 | 36.9%2,507 W · 4,291 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Mathieu Scaglia | 63c | 128$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Lucas Poullain | 37c | 116.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3,279 | 40.3%1,322 W · 1,957 L | +24.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Lucas Poullain | 37c | 110.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Mathieu Scaglia | 62c | 106.86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.17 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…9888backed Mathieu Scaglia | 58c | 85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 1,223 | 54.9%672 W · 551 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Mathieu Scaglia | 61c | 70.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 406 | 50.7%206 W · 200 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Mathieu Scaglia | 62c | 68$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 273 | 53.1%145 W · 128 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Mathieu Scaglia | 63c | 59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 295 | 51.5%152 W · 143 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Lucas Poullain | 39c | 54.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12bc…bf2fbacked Lucas Poullain | 77c | 51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Lucas Poullain | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 834 | 57.1%476 W · 358 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Mathieu Scaglia | 48c | 46.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Lucas Poullain | 38c | 45.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 499 | 43.5%217 W · 282 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Lucas Poullain | 41c | 44.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Lucas Poullain | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,179 | 37%807 W · 1,372 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Mathieu Scaglia | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 826 | 59.3%490 W · 336 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Mathieu Scaglia | 62c | 33.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 435 | 52.9%230 W · 205 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fee…850abacked Mathieu Scaglia | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Mathieu Scaglia | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b3…d0eebacked Mathieu Scaglia | 64c | 20.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Mathieu Scaglia | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 434 | 59.7%259 W · 175 L | +27.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Lucas Poullain | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 521 | 57%297 W · 224 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.