MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x493dff901a7a50cbf31fa70cd70488f1b4858638adf35cb49cd0976efec6dd8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 24c | 1,315$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.9 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 61c | 1,312$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 41c | 1,079$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.81 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Over | 54c | 760$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.05 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 44c | 467.23$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.65 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 49c | 308.92$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.96 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 48c | 113.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked Under | 50c | 94.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 49c | 61.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…7b62backed Over | 60c | 55.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 58c | 54.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Under | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 44c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Under | 49c | 21.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 50c | 20.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.