MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36606271b77a568113f817550306d25d43449b1228cff47af17ef99f3e1161e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ee2…e88fbacked Chicago White Sox | 72c | 2,914$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 1,757$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.41 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 24c | 1,512$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.58 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 1,139$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.51 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 814.79$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.02 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago White Sox | 32c | 798$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.37 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 778.45$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.72 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 689.34$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.86 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Chicago White Sox | 59c | 638.9$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.95 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 625$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 966 | 48.9%472 W · 494 L | -40.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 557.36$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.27 | 1,849 | 50.7%937 W · 912 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 459$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.4 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 311.64$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.98 | 750 | 50.8%381 W · 369 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Chicago White Sox | 61c | 307.69$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.69 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 180$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.43 | 2,423 | 49.9%1,208 W · 1,215 L | +20.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Chicago White Sox | 6c | 176.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…3e4dbacked Chicago White Sox | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f36…905fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 145$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.1 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Chicago White Sox | 46c | 111.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Chicago White Sox | 66c | 109.56$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Chicago White Sox | 58c | 103.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Baltimore Orioles | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,875 | 52.1%976 W · 899 L | +52.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 97.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 801 | 43.3%347 W · 454 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 81.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,319 | 51.1%1,184 W · 1,135 L | +26.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…5ccabacked Chicago White Sox | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 70.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Chicago White Sox | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 28c | 61.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.06 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Baltimore Orioles | 23c | 50.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 46.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 2,349 | 49.9%1,172 W · 1,177 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Chicago White Sox | 60c | 36.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,857 | 42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 34.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 33.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Baltimore Orioles | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Chicago White Sox | 67c | 29.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 768 | 58.1%446 W · 322 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…81f6backed Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Chicago White Sox | 64c | 23.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 926 | 69.5%644 W · 282 L | +94.4wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Baltimore Orioles | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +10.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.