MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7cd669096eebe828d81572babda3cb067e7545637034494440c7482bc0ab899
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,020
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,020 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,349.99 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 2,828$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.18 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 32c | 1,506$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.34 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Under | 68c | 1,500$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 1,073$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.46 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 48c | 1,070$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.6 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 52c | 982.76$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.73 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 48c | 846.38$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.26 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c23…ed23backed Under | 62c | 797.87$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.53 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 38c | 720.84$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.92 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 47c | 674.23$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.89 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 524.01$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.58 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 48c | 491.67$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.2 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 46c | 425.94$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.93 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 47c | 396.34$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.28 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 54c | 336$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.56 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Over | 43c | 289.76$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.28 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 48c | 255.44$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.61 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 28c | 210.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Over | 47c | 148.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 14c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 57c | 67.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 52c | 64.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 52c | 59.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 52.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 49c | 50.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Over | 47c | 50.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 46.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 53c | 42.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Under | 67c | 40.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 52c | 39.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…359dbacked Over | 48c | 37.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Under | 60c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5559…2bd2backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 72c | 26.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb922…1d3ebacked Under | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Over | 58c | 24.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.