CS2 · resolved market
PGL Astana: Aurora vs. Astralis
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x495803cc8536e7a82a24542ec50f5d52c3e4ca9bf7e6396d51ec2b1989980754
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astralisof Aurora, Astralis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x480d…f219backed Aurora | 64c | 1,916$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.93 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…901abacked Astralis | 37c | 1,823$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Aurora | 33c | 1,741$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.31 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Aurora | 63c | 1,590$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.66 | 754 | 50.5%381 W · 373 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Astralis | 36c | 1,542$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.58 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Astralis | 37c | 966.96$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.84 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Aurora | 63c | 910.79$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.74 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed Aurora | 64c | 703.13$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Aurora | 63c | 397.44$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…97b6backed Astralis | 38c | 397.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.08 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…8af6backed Aurora | 64c | 385$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Astralis | 45c | 385$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.8 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Aurora | 65c | 374.99$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.04 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Astralis | 36c | 313$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.44 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked Astralis | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bf…e42ebacked Astralis | 36c | 267$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Astralis | 54c | 264$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.52 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Aurora | 64c | 231.25$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 263 | 60.8%160 W · 103 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ee…a97bbacked Astralis | 36c | 210$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Astralis | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Aurora | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Aurora | 64c | 151$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…f38dbacked Astralis | 37c | 126.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…b68fbacked Astralis | 36c | 120$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcadd…200bbacked Aurora | 65c | 112$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7836…9560backed Astralis | 36c | 95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5845…1c4ebacked Astralis | 36c | 95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Astralis | 37c | 90$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…34acbacked Aurora | 64c | 90$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…fb5dbacked Astralis | 26c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2c…b2c6backed Astralis | 36c | 75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…7220backed Aurora | 64c | 65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x243b…a150backed Astralis | 36c | 65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffa…0ae6backed Aurora | 64c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…c364backed Astralis | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…0da5backed Astralis | 26c | 51.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Astralis | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28b…cf10backed Aurora | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…dcd3backed Astralis | 37c | 47.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda4…a2a3backed Aurora | 64c | 47.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8877…e6ccbacked Astralis | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd34…e470backed Astralis | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87cb…374dbacked Aurora | 64c | 44.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf751…f148backed Aurora | 64c | 43.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Astralis | 37c | 41.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb65…df33backed Aurora | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…dc7fbacked Astralis | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Aurora | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca8…9779backed Aurora | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…da0fbacked Astralis | 37c | 35.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…225ebacked Astralis | 37c | 34.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Aurora | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64f1…5cc9backed Aurora | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e7…9acdbacked Astralis | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Aurora | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a73…957dbacked Astralis | 36c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc570…4c7ebacked Astralis | 37c | 27.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Aurora | 74c | 26.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…8869backed Aurora | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc85…b081backed Aurora | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…2de6backed Aurora | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa90c…82e8backed Aurora | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Aurora | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 307 | 48.9%150 W · 157 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…7f60backed Aurora | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…9d23backed Aurora | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee2…6473backed Aurora | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70b7…40ffbacked Aurora | 64c | 23.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…6705backed Aurora | 64c | 20.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1296…0d1fbacked Aurora | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f5…b6e9backed Aurora | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4678…ef7fbacked Aurora | 64c | 19.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…cdd1backed Aurora | 64c | 18.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…c83dbacked Aurora | 65c | 16.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…9230backed Aurora | 64c | 16.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.