NBA · resolved market
Spread: Clippers (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x498b88d48e0337fc87021f535ca38378e7d5ca8cfc519014d838497b0fa38fce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Clippers, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fc2…eda4backed Clippers | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Heat | 55c | 6,000$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Heat | 54c | 3,522$1,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,624.46 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Clippers | 45c | 2,891$1,299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b15…cc30backed Heat | 53c | 2,244$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Heat | 53c | 1,782$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.51 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Clippers | 47c | 1,778$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.66 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x871f…7630backed Heat | 59c | 1,667$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…9c86backed Clippers | 51c | 1,516$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ac…17bdbacked Clippers | 46c | 1,326$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa6…c286backed Heat | 53c | 1,266$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Clippers | 42c | 1,234$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.99 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf8…5fb6backed Clippers | 47c | 1,233$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.51 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa796…b816backed Heat | 54c | 1,194$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8e…e90cbacked Clippers | 47c | 1,121$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…59fbbacked Clippers | 47c | 1,103$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Heat | 53c | 1,064$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.15 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f92…cc7dbacked Clippers | 47c | 1,011$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…4252backed Heat | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e50…c337backed Heat | 54c | 967$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…2babbacked Heat | 54c | 907$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x583f…8a4fbacked Heat | 54c | 853$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.38 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Heat | 53c | 839.01$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.55 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9515…da75backed Clippers | 48c | 799$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29af…76f1backed Clippers | 47c | 672$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.84 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0515…f99ebacked Clippers | 46c | 645$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Heat | 53c | 605.31$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.3 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e3…5c3bbacked Clippers | 46c | 567$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.82 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d69…70c3backed Heat | 54c | 537$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Heat | 56c | 535.71$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.71 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc906…9169backed Heat | 53c | 509$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Clippers | 45c | 393.9$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.26 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Clippers | 44c | 336.71$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.15 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Heat | 49c | 238$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.47 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…15cdbacked Heat | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Clippers | 43c | 190$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Clippers | 46c | 140.79$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Heat | 51c | 130$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Heat | 51c | 130$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Heat | 53c | 101.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Heat | 45c | 62.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5780…5a8bbacked Heat | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc228…7a7dbacked Heat | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Heat | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Heat | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Clippers (-8.5)this page
- Heat vs. ClippersHeat won
- Heat vs. Clippers: 1H MoneylineClippers won
- Heat vs. Clippers: 1H O/U 118.5Over won
- Heat vs. Clippers: O/U 226.5Over won
- Heat vs. Clippers: O/U 227.5Over won
- Heat vs. Clippers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Heat vs. Clippers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Heat vs. Clippers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Spread: Clippers (-7.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.