Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49b5029bf2d19061f632a5c0761a8ac714e4ebef44d7e5ff45b4643b2aaf98d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,046 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 73c | 949.54$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.52 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 639.34$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.38 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 636.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 6c | 590.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.32 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7908…4f35backed Yes | 4c | 560.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.57 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 480.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 7c | 462.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.84 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 5c | 369.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.69 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 5c | 300.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.57 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 4c | 291.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 10c | 286.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.12 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 19c | 279.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.41 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed Yes | 47c | 255.58$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.76 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…13f3backed Yes | 6c | 242.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.88 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 5c | 230.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.53 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 6c | 226.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.06 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 20c | 211.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.03 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 195.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 19c | 192.73$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.85 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed Yes | 6c | 189.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.46 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 11c | 185.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.54 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 12c | 168.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.12 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…960bbacked Yes | 12c | 160.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +725.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 54c | 159.81$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 8c | 151.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.85 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 132.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 130.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 9c | 126.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.98 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d4…2ba1backed No | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 42c | 70.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 53c | 70.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 47c | 68.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 77c | 65.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 77c | 64.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…5219backed Yes | 50c | 63.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 23c | 59.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 22c | 59.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…e3c0backed No | 43c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 47c | 42.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 43c | 38.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 70c | 35.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 74c | 34.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 52c | 27.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 55c | 27.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 59c | 22.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729d…4c8abacked No | 73c | 16.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.