Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c19ebf15ce62f914bbbbc78f4adf753bb98aef7e1952bb75e97efa7356dd6e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,124 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 417.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b39…eae4backed Yes | 11c | 388.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12d1…4a80backed Yes | 4c | 341.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 301.34$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.93 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 4c | 277.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 47c | 267.94$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 5c | 220.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 14c | 166.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 9c | 159.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 22c | 147.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 10c | 137.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 118$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 10c | 107.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 29c | 103.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…72dabacked No | 54c | 100.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 100.07$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 18c | 99.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 14c | 90.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0043…dadebacked Yes | 17c | 89.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 28c | 89.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 87.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed Yes | 28c | 86.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 46c | 85.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 24c | 82.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…6e73backed No | 70c | 72.86$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bdd…c16cbacked No | 72c | 69.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 52c | 69.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…be08backed Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 41c | 46.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 73c | 44.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 35c | 43.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 54c | 42.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…6fb9backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 38.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 66c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…8cc7backed Yes | 59c | 27.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked Yes | 46c | 27.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 42c | 25.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…887dbacked No | 45c | 25.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 79c | 25.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…9747backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…bb68backed No | 48c | 22.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed Yes | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 66c | 21.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fb…cc8abacked No | 78c | 13.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 78c | 12.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.