Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33850007ce9e6e86b1ef3a9461f86acf42b0ed2bb3073476b2785225ab158e3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,102 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 18c | 968.48$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 48c | 423.97$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.19 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 25c | 397.25$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.13 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 198.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 20c | 166.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 157.36$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5d…0522backed Yes | 41c | 150.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…844fbacked Yes | 45c | 140.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 137.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 136.15$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 132$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 14c | 126.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 124$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 122.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 119.74$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 10c | 112.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 97.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ab…b157backed Yes | 38c | 97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 80c | 94.3$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 89.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 89.85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 89.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 14c | 86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 64c | 82.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 30c | 77.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 76.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 47c | 70.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf251…5d3fbacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 69c | 64.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…d0cebacked Yes | 33c | 60.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 32c | 59.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 67c | 57.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 24c | 52.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 47c | 50.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 62c | 48.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 47.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…e3c0backed No | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 30c | 39.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 39.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 69c | 30.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 53c | 25.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 65c | 22.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4146…8d09backed No | 65c | 21.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a89…0e5dbacked No | 72c | 20.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 60c | 17.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 72c | 13.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.