Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29340612c7a36847e9f53f553f385bef3429a9c011db14a212bdffab182be536
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,767 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 10c | 678$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 383.08$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 31c | 375.33$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.27 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 42c | 351.01$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.92 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 254.98$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 31c | 237.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 49c | 223.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.22 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…abb2backed No | 69c | 213$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.03 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 38c | 209.88$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 20c | 166.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 164.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 163.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e3…52afbacked Yes | 24c | 160.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 140.81$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf536…54fcbacked No | 71c | 140.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 67c | 136.52$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 132$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 128.93$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 30c | 124$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266c…4470backed Yes | 15c | 110$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 11c | 105.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 105.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 16c | 90.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ab…b157backed Yes | 40c | 83.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 28c | 76.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 63c | 70.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 34c | 68.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 68.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 38c | 63.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x184a…bd44backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 69c | 59.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 58.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 34c | 57.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 56.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 40c | 55.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 29c | 53.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 53c | 51.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 31c | 51.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 58c | 51.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…10cbbacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 47.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 71c | 42.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a1…362dbacked Yes | 39c | 38.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 48c | 37.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 33c | 36.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…f095backed No | 69c | 36.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…844fbacked No | 41c | 36.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…e3c0backed No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 74c | 33.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460b…ed32backed Yes | 68c | 33.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…d05dbacked Yes | 36c | 32.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23bd…f447backed Yes | 64c | 32.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fca…5b25backed No | 66c | 31.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5f…2ec8backed No | 47c | 31.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed Yes | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2018…640abacked Yes | 39c | 29.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 68c | 29.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 24.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 72c | 23.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…16debacked Yes | 56c | 23.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb92…730bbacked No | 65c | 22.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd72d…9e9ebacked No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 39 | 87.2%34 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 73cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 61c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…a5d4backed Yes | 48c | 21.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7d…5219backed Yes | 67c | 20.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 57c | 19.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 67c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 70c | 17.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc279…7023backed No | 73c | 17.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 68c | 14.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…2efbbacked Yes | 69c | 14.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -4°C or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C or higher on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.