Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Ivory (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49baec34a3d80baaa30ee639f7dd3fd6b9d6531ec73b1b41f82402c92e0a26ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ivoryof Yangon Galacticos, Ivory
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yangon Galacticos | 34c | 2,867$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.23 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e1…c872backed Ivory | 59c | 1,619$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.55 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Yangon Galacticos | 6c | 874.26$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed Ivory | 62c | 454.87$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.67 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Ivory | 53c | 427.74$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.91 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Yangon Galacticos | 46c | 402.59$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.19 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…40a4backed Yangon Galacticos | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Yangon Galacticos | 53c | 302.07$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8b35backed Ivory | 60c | 264.94$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.94 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Yangon Galacticos | 30c | 264.48$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yangon Galacticos | 47c | 257$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.01 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Ivory | 54c | 230.22$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.9 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4dff…7974backed Yangon Galacticos | 30c | 209.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b17…672ebacked Yangon Galacticos | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed Ivory | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Ivory | 47c | 198.76$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.34 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9801…1ab6backed Ivory | 55c | 166$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…8311backed Ivory | 61c | 163.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Ivory | 48c | 161.15$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.8 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a44…30c4backed Ivory | 77c | 150.92$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…44adbacked Yangon Galacticos | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Ivory | 55c | 145.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…b8e6backed Ivory | 47c | 109$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Ivory | 59c | 101.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Yangon Galacticos | 15c | 100.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…a9a3backed Ivory | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Yangon Galacticos | 27c | 99.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked Yangon Galacticos | 45c | 94.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Yangon Galacticos | 52c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yangon Galacticos | 33c | 73.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Yangon Galacticos | 50c | 57.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…8de5backed Yangon Galacticos | 46c | 56.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…ed1dbacked Ivory | 78c | 52.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ivory | 64c | 50.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…a74ebacked Yangon Galacticos | 35c | 42.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Yangon Galacticos | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yangon Galacticos | 54c | 37.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…10dcbacked Ivory | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Yangon Galacticos | 44c | 33.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yangon Galacticos | 48c | 30.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd6…605abacked Ivory | 51c | 28.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Ivory | 55c | 25.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…5365backed Yangon Galacticos | 48c | 25.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…3cacbacked Ivory | 45c | 23.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…2044backed Yangon Galacticos | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d7…bcb6backed Ivory | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.