Tennis · resolved market
Osaka vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49e7e8a80efabc0592aaa586083a2ed6913412c08ca9466835d86edce5aa21a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Over | 47c | 1,020$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.34 | 154 | 47.4%73 W · 81 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 54c | 499.99$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.38 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 53c | 495$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.65 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Under | 53c | 179.51$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.37 | 345 | 49.9%172 W · 173 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a6…b9debacked Over | 46c | 97.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Over | 46c | 91.3$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 594 | 40.2%239 W · 355 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under | 55c | 59.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Over | 46c | 50.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 185 | 51.9%96 W · 89 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Over | 46c | 50.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Over | 46c | 50.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 46c | 50.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 181 | 48.1%87 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 53c | 46.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 468 | 48.5%227 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb518…3403backed Over | 46c | 32.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 140 | 60%84 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ba81backed Over | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 474 | 31.9%151 W · 323 L | -21.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 50c | 22.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 671 | 44.7%300 W · 371 L | +30.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Osaka vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5this page
- Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Iga SwiatekIga Swiatek won
- Naomi Osaka vs. Iga Swiatek: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Osaka vs. Swiatek: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Osaka vs SwiatekSwiatek won
- Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5)Swiatek won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.