Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Osaka vs Swiatek
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5498432a6409dc849b3321cfd07db32c0a735963748d179fc3792cbb96e426bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Swiatekof Osaka, Swiatek
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $830
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $830 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Swiatek | 68c | 303.26$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.01 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Swiatek | 68c | 174.81$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Swiatek | 62c | 164.81$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Osaka | 33c | 124.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Osaka | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 120 | 25.8%31 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Osaka | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Osaka | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Osaka | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2624…426abacked Osaka | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Swiatek | 67c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Osaka | 24c | 42.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Swiatek | 76c | 35.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Swiatek | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Osaka vs Swiatekthis page
- Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Iga SwiatekIga Swiatek won
- Naomi Osaka vs. Iga Swiatek: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Osaka vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Osaka vs. Swiatek: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5)Swiatek won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.