Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfce522620479a3894693c7d02f6f253b4db8ed7fe97d938ed146ae2538502e3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Swiatekof Swiatek, Osaka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb57a…b8c3backed Osaka | 49c | 13,660$6,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,749.39 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc350…3669backed Swiatek | 51c | 5,853$2,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,890.66 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Swiatek | 50c | 5,099$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.5 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Swiatek | 51c | 4,517$2,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,213.63 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed Osaka | 47c | 4,131$1,922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,922.11 | 308 | 27.6%85 W · 223 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…079ebacked Osaka | 50c | 2,402$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 416 | 45.4%189 W · 227 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…3313backed Swiatek | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Osaka | 50c | 1,335$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.45 | 1,277 | 56.6%723 W · 554 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Swiatek | 49c | 1,204$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614 | 3,884 | 35%1,358 W · 2,526 L | +92.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3c…786dbacked Osaka | 51c | 969.41$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.71 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…0e56backed Osaka | 50c | 878.65$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.31 | 285 | 50.2%143 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Swiatek | 50c | 874.28$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.37 | 428 | 41.6%178 W · 250 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb0…3036backed Swiatek | 53c | 805.14$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.14 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Swiatek | 63c | 765.5$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.39 | 2,776 | 53.7%1,491 W · 1,285 L | +69.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Swiatek | 50c | 681.01$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.52 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1c…d8acbacked Swiatek | 51c | 563.37$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.05 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Swiatek | 49c | 508.22$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.9 | 132 | 37.9%50 W · 82 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4a…1c05backed Swiatek | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Swiatek | 53c | 497.86$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.65 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…7738backed Osaka | 51c | 461.35$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.29 | 1,123 | 50.3%565 W · 558 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Swiatek | 50c | 372$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb002…103dbacked Osaka | 47c | 299.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Swiatek | 50c | 257.31$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.66 | 457 | 51%233 W · 224 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…b91dbacked Swiatek | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Osaka | 33c | 209.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 373 | 30.3%113 W · 260 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Osaka | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 325 | 54.2%176 W · 149 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Swiatek | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 247 | 47.4%117 W · 130 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Swiatek | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1,245 | 51.9%646 W · 599 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Osaka | 47c | 168$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 556 | 41.2%229 W · 327 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Swiatek | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ec…060bbacked Swiatek | 54c | 158.06$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…3c33backed Swiatek | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Swiatek | 50c | 116$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Osaka | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 426 | 43.9%187 W · 239 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Osaka | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 267 | 59.6%159 W · 108 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Swiatek | 51c | 97.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad3…f5d0backed Swiatek | 53c | 93.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…c407backed Swiatek | 51c | 84.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Swiatek | 50c | 80.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 1,515 | 37.7%571 W · 944 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…4803backed Swiatek | 53c | 80.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Swiatek | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Swiatek | 54c | 74.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Swiatek | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 153 | 37.9%58 W · 95 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Swiatek | 51c | 62.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 897 | 54.6%490 W · 407 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe321…b456backed Osaka | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Swiatek | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 2,043 | 47.8%977 W · 1,066 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…98a7backed Swiatek | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 172 | 42.4%73 W · 99 L | -17.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed Swiatek | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Osaka | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 158 | 51.3%81 W · 77 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce1…a25dbacked Swiatek | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…e5aabacked Swiatek | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Swiatek | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…db27backed Swiatek | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 139 | 48.9%68 W · 71 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Swiatek | 51c | 39.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 2,440 | 51.7%1,261 W · 1,179 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…8a96backed Swiatek | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…6679backed Osaka | 40c | 34.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Swiatek | 53c | 33.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 80 | 57.5%46 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Swiatek | 54c | 32.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265e…327bbacked Osaka | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…a39bbacked Osaka | 48c | 31.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Osaka | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 830 | 47%390 W · 440 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Osaka | 47c | 27.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Swiatek | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Swiatek | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 427 | 45.7%195 W · 232 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Swiatek | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db9…846cbacked Swiatek | 52c | 21.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Swiatek | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Swiatek | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe93c…76ebbacked Swiatek | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Osaka (+1.5)this page
- Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Naomi Osaka vs Iga SwiatekIga Swiatek won
- Naomi Osaka vs. Iga Swiatek: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Osaka vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Osaka vs. Swiatek: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Osaka vs SwiatekSwiatek won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.