NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49f5e322acbd97377bfecfd1ed0e87cf5379abfc357c3c6f217c55247ae4b57f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 57c | 638.7$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.69 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26d8…0175backed Under | 2c | 575$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa325…27cabacked Over | 31c | 459.6$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.72 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddc…6796backed Under | 39c | 407.79$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 337.64$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.09 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 48c | 327.25$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.09 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 28c | 301.62$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.67 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 26c | 300$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Under | 74c | 300$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 69c | 284.34$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.52 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 47c | 258.78$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.51 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Under | 72c | 168.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.67 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…cadebacked Over | 50c | 160.94$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +47%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 63c | 124.6$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…58c9backed Under | 64c | 122.05$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Under | 47c | 112.18$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 48c | 110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 53c | 92.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…f736backed Under | 64c | 73.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 58c | 69.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…2dabbacked Under | 39c | 68.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Over | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Under | 44c | 54.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 55c | 50.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Under | 69c | 47.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x158b…a56dbacked Under | 72c | 37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc36f…e5fdbacked Over | 29c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713a…258dbacked Under | 71c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…d35fbacked Under | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f3…9dc7backed Under | 54c | 26.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…8984backed Under | 43c | 25.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf6…abb2backed Over | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a5…a4ccbacked Under | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. IslandersIslanders won
- Maple Leafs vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Islanders: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Islanders won
- Spread: Islanders (-2.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.