NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e2a3d412723e821f0929be9398f4b85d1f8723fe68bddd06bda07d025a77b66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,500 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 50c | 11,690$5,845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,845 | 224 | 43.8%98 W · 126 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 7c | 2,409$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…41ccbacked Under | 50c | 2,111$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.5 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Under | 52c | 1,158$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 1,062$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.94 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 48c | 952.79$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.45 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 77c | 339.33$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.7 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 50c | 308.58$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.29 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e7…1264backed Over | 48c | 285$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x127f…0b39backed Under | 54c | 280$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6241…d36ebacked Under | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc27b…3b6ebacked Over | 50c | 248$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 63c | 226.61$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.09 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 223.46$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0b…4857backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 46.8%102 W · 116 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…a38cbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 10c | 188.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 69c | 182.32$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Over | 49c | 181.63$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.63 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 51c | 181.63$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.63 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 34c | 147.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 135.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 50c | 105$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 79c | 104.76$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…8c31backed Under | 13c | 101.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 49c | 81.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 56c | 81.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…2dabbacked Under | 38c | 78.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…3c5abacked Over | 49c | 77.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 32c | 58.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 41c | 57.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 41c | 54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…6039backed Under | 53c | 53.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c0…f3e8backed Under | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 32c | 49.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Over | 47c | 43.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 80c | 40.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 51c | 37.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Under | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe56f…bdaabacked Over | 49c | 30.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45d…de2fbacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ba…f2c5backed Under | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…fbfebacked Over | 50c | 27.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Over | 66c | 27.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…8010backed Under | 52c | 19.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. IslandersIslanders won
- Maple Leafs vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Islanders: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Islanders won
- Spread: Islanders (-2.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.