WNBA · resolved market
Liberty vs. Mercury
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a10efd8c4938d1f2c5390db6976a91330280fe10fb62f3253a0a28fa47b46b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Libertyof Liberty, Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Mercury | 43c | 3,777$1,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.77 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Mercury | 48c | 3,109$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.76 | 239 | 31.8%76 W · 163 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Liberty | 57c | 1,471$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.66 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Liberty | 56c | 1,440$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.63 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Liberty | 58c | 1,394$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.26 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Mercury | 45c | 1,269$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.71 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Liberty | 54c | 1,250$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.92 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fec…fc7bbacked Mercury | 2c | 1,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Liberty | 53c | 1,069$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.93 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Mercury | 44c | 1,004$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.7 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Mercury | 28c | 877$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…bfaebacked Liberty | 71c | 701.47$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.47 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mercury | 45c | 671.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.05 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Liberty | 56c | 535.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Liberty | 40c | 479.3$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.06 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Liberty | 57c | 421.05$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Mercury | 10c | 389$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…aaadbacked Mercury | 4c | 356$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Liberty | 57c | 352.81$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.71 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…71fdbacked Liberty | 63c | 332.11$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Liberty | 58c | 331.93$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.41 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5da…d89ebacked Mercury | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Mercury | 44c | 305.28$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.83 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Liberty | 52c | 295$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.6 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Liberty | 52c | 288$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.24 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Liberty | 52c | 277.39$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.15 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e2…4459backed Liberty | 55c | 242.69$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Mercury | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 234 | 31.6%74 W · 160 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Mercury | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 272 | 32.7%89 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Liberty | 50c | 222$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 92 | 14.1%13 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…51edbacked Liberty | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mercury | 49c | 203.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f47…0043backed Liberty | 69c | 190.72$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Mercury | 41c | 187.2$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 318 | 47.8%152 W · 166 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Mercury | 35c | 165.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…f332backed Mercury | 47c | 156.43$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Mercury | 56c | 141.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Mercury | 45c | 140$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Mercury | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Mercury | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Liberty | 75c | 101.36$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Liberty | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f2…5bb5backed Liberty | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Liberty | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…9133backed Mercury | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Liberty | 58c | 70.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…475abacked Liberty | 57c | 69.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…3201backed Liberty | 55c | 64.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Liberty | 46c | 55.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Mercury | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Liberty | 57c | 45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Mercury | 44c | 44.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 141 | 36.2%51 W · 90 L | +11.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…9e1cbacked Mercury | 45c | 44.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf047…36ccbacked Liberty | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe19a…f405backed Liberty | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…9d2abacked Mercury | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…5012backed Liberty | 56c | 43.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…1835backed Mercury | 45c | 43.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…132cbacked Liberty | 56c | 42.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5751…b3e8backed Mercury | 45c | 42.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Liberty | 55c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Liberty | 66c | 41.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d5…dae1backed Mercury | 45c | 39.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3c…9a1cbacked Liberty | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…7ab8backed Liberty | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Mercury | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed Liberty | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…5b9cbacked Liberty | 57c | 29.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…3247backed Mercury | 44c | 29.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce1…9ec6backed Mercury | 41c | 29.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Mercury | 51c | 28.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6862…f25dbacked Mercury | 44c | 28.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Mercury | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5808…3e2abacked Liberty | 58c | 27.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd916…9ea7backed Liberty | 57c | 27.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf400…4df2backed Mercury | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Liberty | 52c | 26.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…4289backed Mercury | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Mercury | 43c | 23.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Mercury | 44c | 23.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5184…03c8backed Liberty | 56c | 20.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5429…a2ecbacked Liberty | 56c | 18.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.