Other European Leagues · resolved market
AZ vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a179bfc15b335c2a4fb7cb8cad76b3935c3811f79c2e3472a417d29e72b27a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,499
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,499 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 996.28$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.69 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 40c | 585.9$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.2 | 168 | 26.2%44 W · 124 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 15c | 494.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 411.38$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.03 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 250.04$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 63c | 239.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 223.15$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 57c | 222$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.46 | 216 | 58.8%127 W · 89 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 59c | 219.34$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.67 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 58c | 118.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 347 | 60.8%211 W · 136 L | +33.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ab…3e5cbacked Under | 40c | 109.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Over | 28c | 80.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 45c | 76.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 306 | 56.2%172 W · 134 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Over | 44c | 73.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Over | 44c | 69.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 44c | 67.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 322 | 59.3%191 W · 131 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 44c | 64.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 256 | 53.1%136 W · 120 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 44c | 57.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 72c | 53.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 320 | 51.9%166 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 28c | 40.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 30c | 34.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 75c | 34.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 383 | 58.7%225 W · 158 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | +45.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x882a…cde2backed Under | 72c | 26.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 57c | 20.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 77c | 17.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 80c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AZ vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 4.5this page
- AZ vs. SC Heerenveen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AZ vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 1.5Over won
- AZ vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 2.5Over won
- AZ vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: AZ (-1.5)AZ won
- Spread: AZ (-2.5)AZ won
- Spread: SC Heerenveen (-1.5)AZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.