MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a2bbfd0e457ec36f958ca89577410bdf873db4d9d1be30bee99f109c4e956ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 4,848$2,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,297.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 52c | 4,309$2,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,057.79 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Under | 54c | 415$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.61 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 28c | 359.43$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Under | 59c | 142$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.57 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Under | 54c | 137.93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Over | 20c | 126.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 190 | 41.1%78 W · 112 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Under | 73c | 124.45$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 69c | 119.16$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 50c | 76.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Under | 65c | 69.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Under | 55c | 48.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Under | 76c | 39.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1c…2679backed Under | 50c | 38.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 72c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Under | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Under | 76c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 1.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati RedsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 2.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.