MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7900ee858d4506524a370f68605cfd4089f091f1264b184ac7f08032d00b00b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 29c | 7,406$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175.47 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 77c | 6,624$5,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,544.85 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -17.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 52c | 4,808$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 4,288$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.39 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 3,224$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.2 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 3,132$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.5 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 3,080$1,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,571.05 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…7850backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 1,733$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.33 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 1,365$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.8 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 1,253$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.66 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 1,123$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.5 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 1,066$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 1,024$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.88 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 1,024$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.24 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 25c | 578.76$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.38 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 560.43$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.04 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…75b3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 29c | 480.14$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 402.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.1 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 396$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 387$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.28 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef6…01a9backed Philadelphia Phillies | 28c | 359.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 342.18$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.56 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 340.68$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 315.07$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.82 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 286.13$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.79 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 220.94$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.47 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 26c | 210.5$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 199$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.49 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 193.3$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 146.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.81 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 140$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 113.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 112$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…28f3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 101.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…fcfbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 90.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x855a…2144backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 89.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 74.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 44c | 71.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 69.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 38c | 63.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2713…43b2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 54.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…40ecbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 120 | 53.3%64 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 48.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 188 | 48.9%92 W · 96 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 46.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 43.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 39.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a6…bfeebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 37.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 40c | 36.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…30a0backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d2…380bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 23.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati RedsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 1.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 2.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.