MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b98fdfc7fe9fe65031dc85d8a95a2c157769d012826731990f89c2e70349e0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 1,405$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.39 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 48c | 1,302$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.96 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 53c | 1,283$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 48c | 1,203$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.29 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 53c | 1,099$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.53 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 1,024$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.28 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 52c | 1,016$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.68 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 47c | 706.94$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.26 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 47c | 638.29$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 306.91$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.15 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 53c | 295.09$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.69 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 53c | 293$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.71 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 208.33$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45ff…6412backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 180$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 37c | 153$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85bb…9adabacked Over | 10c | 134.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 52c | 129.81$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…e628backed Over | 47c | 128$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 105 | 46.7%49 W · 56 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 106.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 83.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 46c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3534…a1b3backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe629…d920backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 50c | 47.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 47c | 42.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…85f0backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 52c | 38.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 47c | 33.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati RedsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 1.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 2.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 4.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.