TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on April 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$42,218
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,788

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,218 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 135 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes41c2,676$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,582.064,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Yes77c877.08$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.573145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes68c621.37$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.981,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x216e…fda6backed No15c544.68$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.77118.3%13 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes42c475.95$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.784,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed No15c456.9$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.322450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes61c437.13$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.985,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No34c411.4$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.242,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No11c406.2$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6890040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No29c401.48$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2884124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c366.18$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.3812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes34c340.52$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.3823823.9%57 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick24cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No68c337.59$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.118,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe18c…dfa5backed Yes31c294.55$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.993839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d1…e736backed Yes34c261.67$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.65540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes77c250.02$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0525362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes59c245.73$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.9410843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x402d…5c07backed No64c214.92$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.961346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick67cpaid-32.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x30bd…cecabacked Yes49c208.48$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.933836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c189.71$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.9717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes37c183.89$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.481,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56d1…83eabacked Yes37c150$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.51250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No61c148.46$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5119059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes48c138.54$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.424238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes63c136.94$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2631124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No31c129.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.012,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c126.81$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.5712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe3f0…f424backed Yes37c126.07$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.982334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No49c120.02$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.257,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No40c119.97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.574,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed No55c115.67$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3198738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No63c115.59$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1652155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x302c…108abacked Yes42c112.75$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.664837.5%18 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes36c106.25$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.9826434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd31…0a42backed Yes37c100$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6312638.1%48 W · 78 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff3…a737backed Yes52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486041.7%25 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa8aa…48ccbacked No12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129122%20 W · 71 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes35c99.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes43c98.94$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3431943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec83…7014backed Yes40c98.11$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.862528%7 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-34.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked No74c97.87$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.2761365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes32c96.83$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.7568335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed Yes37c93.77$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1766944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3754…2d4ebacked No22c90.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.774245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes39c90.49$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0325037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2155…3428backed Yes77c87.15$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4618845.2%85 W · 103 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4b3…c131backed Yes32c85.58$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.942416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed No18c82.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0357614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb557…634cbacked Yes50c80$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes23c78.84$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.759125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes34c77.23$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9773927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf05a…d78fbacked No68c74.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3712670.6%89 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf590…303cbacked No56c73.43$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2812762.2%79 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5127…6f96backed No68c73.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9212374%91 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes71c72.82$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1549547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No49c71.21$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6648743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes33c69.29$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.757,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc6…d496backed Yes49c69.12$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.186657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes34c69.05$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3626834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes24c68.37$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.171,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No64c67.56$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.511,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x696f…8f04backed Yes29c67.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.564124.4%10 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f3b…b13bbacked Yes63c64.7$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.943246.9%15 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes46c64.14$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7929835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.052,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes42c61.95$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7133450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes32c61.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.841,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes37c61.73$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8326738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed No62c61.35$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9220353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4808…5309backed Yes52c60.52$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.19862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick36cpaid+251.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.61,27534%433 W · 842 L+46.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdd0…eed8backed Yes37c60$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.81729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-18%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed No60c58.08$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8546444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes42c57.93$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4335133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb34d…e1bdbacked Yes71c55.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.078164.2%52 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No65c54.41$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.22,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x997f…000abacked No80c52.86$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1714548.3%70 W · 75 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1235465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8276…cc63backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.516144.1%71 W · 90 L+14.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x82f7…4bf0backed Yes47c49.95$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.271145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6723…0f31backed Yes29c48.05$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.121338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa1f…af40backed Yes42c47.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.434837.5%18 W · 30 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes32c46.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6934934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes42c45.69$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.331,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No22c45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.11,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes29c44.94$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0816832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc95…edefbacked Yes37c44.56$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.05425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes34c44.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1614632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x831a…ad82backed Yes26c42.78$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5219648.5%95 W · 101 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2312…8ae7backed No64c41.83$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.77540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes47c41.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0511343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb211…10b3backed Yes27c39.51$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.699453.2%50 W · 44 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No76c39.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0170770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes38c39.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5211644%51 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4254…1d02backed No65c39.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.512363.4%78 W · 45 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa73…c2c4backed Yes36c38.51$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.461250%6 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+107.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked No45c37.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.017650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes59c37.59$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2323463.7%149 W · 85 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc9d…f963backed Yes38c36.85$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.853844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.