TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on April 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,705
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,054

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,705 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes21c5,378$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.954,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eea…00c5backed Yes21c1,473$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.8222450.4%113 W · 111 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes24c919.2$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.778,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x216e…fda6backed Yes17c916.19$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.17118.3%13 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58e6…9ac7backed No77c829.49$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.919753.8%106 W · 91 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes14c751.48$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.794,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked Yes12c727.57$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5490040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No80c696.92$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes8c651.63$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.131,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes15c573.12$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1530919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x879e…e339backed No74c569.09$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.1217555.4%97 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed No70c561.62$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.441,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c466.94$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x63ad…c072backed Yes19c457.24$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.322536%9 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26d1…e736backed Yes22c451.6$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.57540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes19c427.58$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.075,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed No80c425.32$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.091,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes31c420.21$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.166240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No78c411.39$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.52,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cc0…1912backed Yes18c406.66$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.216116.1%26 W · 135 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes9c386.89$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.651321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e22…3061backed Yes30c368.42$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.0538515.6%60 W · 325 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+93.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes11c361.72$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7242130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a2b…bf2abacked No74c331.88$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.16264.5%40 W · 22 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No66c303.01$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.022,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes17c300$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.930813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes34c277.94$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3711223.2%26 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes7c277.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0681234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes24c271.05$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.641,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes18c252.64$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7784124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4e…1f10backed No78c249.69$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.027070%49 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes24c228.54$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.611,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes19c217.02$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17dd…056abacked Yes8c215.46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.226913%9 W · 60 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes16c211.3$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8157614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes27c211.13$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6811729.9%35 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18d4…1d3abacked Yes25c205.78$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.611526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+78.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes13c204.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5986226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.910843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd393…0744backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10502%1 W · 49 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-60%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3754…2d4ebacked Yes23c187.95$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.324245.2%19 W · 23 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+14.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd138…aac0backed Yes8c183.17$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.569221.7%20 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-38.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdaaf…051bbacked No74c178.2$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5313160.3%79 W · 52 L+13.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes19c177.95$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes20c161.93$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8834250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65df…6144backed Yes46c158.98$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.826137.7%23 W · 38 L-8.4wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-20.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes14c158.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.935133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c153.24$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.387,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes18c152.95$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.271,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef81…494cbacked Yes27c151.65$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No78c150$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x23d8…f6b9backed No67c148.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1425175.7%190 W · 61 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+14%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x914b…0927backed No79c147.95$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.062665.4%17 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes21c144.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8221440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x068c…c5bebacked Yes25c143.35$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.081931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes27c142.56$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0446743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2018…f1dbbacked Yes26c142.38$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes17c142.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6192028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Yes27c139.52$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1111122.5%25 W · 86 L-9.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes15c135.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2823823.9%57 W · 181 L-0.8wins0.00per pick24cpaid+11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bb7…2838backed Yes17c133.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.232913.8%4 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba96…95a7backed No77c127.08$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3924029.2%70 W · 170 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes22c126.59$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7231943.3%138 W · 181 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes13c125.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.374047.5%19 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes28c124.69$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4873927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c8…b8c0backed No79c121.32$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4632830.5%100 W · 228 L+1.3wins0.00per pick30cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No76c118.03$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9252155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes16c115.78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.987,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked No78c114.74$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.4734067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes32c113.91$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4224238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x81b2…cf28backed No75c112.48$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.461361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick75cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa17…aa48backed Yes25c105.82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0912226.2%32 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+133.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No76c104.83$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.762,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed Yes31c103.23$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.421,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc95…edefbacked Yes24c102.52$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.88425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234030%12 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fe8…55cabacked Yes15c98.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.72015%3 W · 17 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed34…2309backed Yes19c94.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.398336.1%30 W · 53 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1385…e96abacked Yes11c94.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0113732.1%44 W · 93 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed Yes11c94.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1019133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ff3…a737backed Yes26c93.34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.276041.7%25 W · 35 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3545…b7e0backed Yes32c92.81$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.282429.2%7 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid+29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb627…d968backed Yes29c89.7$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.727846.2%36 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked No64c85$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.649038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes34c81.73$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7925037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc6…d496backed No80c81.54$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.316657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes20c76.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.283,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed Yes19c74.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8322550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No69c71.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0124370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf590…303cbacked No74c68.63$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6712762.2%79 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c44…115fbacked No72c68.53$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.061163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+33.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x362f…b8eabacked No70c68.33$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.35549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6723…0f31backed Yes30c67.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.181338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes20c67.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.826834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked Yes32c67.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.477650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca71…610bbacked Yes22c67.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7410865.7%71 W · 37 L+13.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+33.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No75c66.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6642976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked Yes32c65.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.832,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes24c60.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.617138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed Yes25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.