Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a335790fc685f1bbfc4bf88674fc35442ead4e5dd5a0dae2600e576e53f1e6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 47c | 332.69$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.18 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 49c | 263.28$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.63 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 156.88$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 25c | 150.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.05 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 63c | 127.01$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.42 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 114.19$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 66c | 114.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 11c | 106.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 27c | 100.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.54 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…8dcbbacked Yes | 25c | 81.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 18c | 79.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 78.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked Yes | 17c | 76.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 75.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 25c | 72.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.52 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 39c | 72.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 66c | 66.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 36c | 61.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 64c | 57.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 74c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed Yes | 23c | 55.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.72 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 74c | 54.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 53.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 53.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 33c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 63c | 50.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 50.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 80c | 50.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 25c | 49.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…6fabbacked Yes | 48c | 48.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 80c | 44.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 24c | 43.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 40.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9217…076abacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 51c | 38.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 49c | 38.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 57c | 37.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 36.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 33.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…76c2backed No | 72c | 31.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 63c | 31.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 50c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd782…a950backed No | 61c | 26.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 53c | 25.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 54c | 25.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 21.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…6294backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 67c | 17.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 78c | 17.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 80c | 16.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked No | 77c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…f19ebacked No | 75c | 15.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…c5edbacked No | 75c | 13.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on May 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on May 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on May 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.