Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a62777a2decf6baa32668d855e93e3df8bef3574ee6f01c072da4c0a7d32690
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,878
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,878 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e92…b750backed Yes | 0c | 12,510$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 3,665$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.6 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 1c | 2,687$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 4c | 1,172$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 4c | 622.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 272.76$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 39c | 240.22$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 148.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 91.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 89.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed No | 71c | 82.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 27c | 60.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed Yes | 38c | 53.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 27cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 42c | 47.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed No | 63c | 47.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 36c | 47.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 75c | 46.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 45.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked Yes | 28c | 45.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 45c | 44.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…92adbacked Yes | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 31.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 36c | 30.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 66c | 30.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 65c | 29.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 61c | 28.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 28.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 43c | 26.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c4…2412backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.