Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b8800519f19095a4c1410780ee52b316d0589a209449b9e60abd5538b44c143
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 2c | 14,913$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.3 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 15c | 11,201$1,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,636.47 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 8,249$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.75 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 2c | 6,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 5,200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 4,602$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.83 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,308$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.41 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 3c | 3,025$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,629$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.26 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…796fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,556$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 3c | 1,690$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 11c | 1,398$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 4c | 1,040$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…325fbacked Yes | 19c | 953.14$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 802.77$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.32 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 7c | 724.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Yes | 2c | 665.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 3c | 653.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 544.9$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 460.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 18c | 448.78$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 8c | 405.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 77c | 385.23$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.36 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 282.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae0…e7f2backed Yes | 4c | 267.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc1…caebbacked Yes | 6c | 253.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 34c | 250$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 230.89$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 219$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.47 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 9c | 212.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 34c | 194.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Yes | 6c | 180$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 22c | 175$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2e…f1a2backed Yes | 6c | 174.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +973.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 14c | 155.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 16c | 149$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 74c | 139.85$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 121.5$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb39b…91e6backed Yes | 11c | 104.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a03…8feabacked Yes | 18c | 103.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 32c | 100.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f15…1277backed No | 80c | 94.53$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 89.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 81.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 14c | 75.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 28c | 70.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 67c | 68.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 37c | 68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 31c | 64.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 63.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 29c | 61.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 56.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4090…d441backed Yes | 26c | 53.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43df…8d83backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 49.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9217…076abacked No | 47c | 46.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 65c | 35.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 49c | 32.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…7936backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…f1e6backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 29.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 74c | 28.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…cb63backed No | 78c | 26.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 65c | 22.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 72c | 22.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4030…bc87backed No | 68c | 22.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 69c | 20.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.