Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5254dbd0a3745c2733a464d564617259f5e73f6f19ea6b976cf3ac05ec042f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3016…54e9backed No | 1c | 4,873$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 4c | 2,243$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 15c | 1,269$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.78 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 24c | 964.06$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 21c | 903.41$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.1 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 14c | 779.75$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.17 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed No | 78c | 677.25$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.06 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 4c | 642.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed Yes | 8c | 595.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.06 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 22c | 516$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 17c | 481.01$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.63 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 21c | 469.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 14c | 427.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 17c | 417$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 349.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.82 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 337.47$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 68c | 281.46$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.11 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 19c | 270$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 263.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 5c | 234.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 16c | 189.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.87 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 28c | 188.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.37 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 62c | 167.18$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 24c | 163.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 12c | 149$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.81 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 8c | 141.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.62 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 116.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…44ebbacked Yes | 17c | 109.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.39 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 10c | 108.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.78 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 35c | 105$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed Yes | 15c | 100.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6860…6279backed No | 21c | 66.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 33c | 63.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 70c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 48c | 47.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa1…f1e6backed Yes | 75c | 41.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 39c | 40.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed Yes | 32c | 39.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 30c | 36.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 36c | 36.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d26…2bb9backed Yes | 80c | 33.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 66c | 28.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.