Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. James Madison Dukes
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a66c46d572729ce06e7ea34973c2e9c121519d8feaf3845975fb81581167b2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marshall Thundering Herdof Marshall Thundering Herd, James Madison Dukes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 61c | 2,581$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.2 | 464 | 46.8%217 W · 247 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed James Madison Dukes | 38c | 1,545$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.82 | 158 | 61.4%97 W · 61 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed James Madison Dukes | 2c | 1,347$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked James Madison Dukes | 38c | 1,078$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.53 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 46c | 1,059$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.86 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked James Madison Dukes | 19c | 1,045$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.62 | 140 | 21.4%30 W · 110 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked James Madison Dukes | 25c | 981.5$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.18 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked James Madison Dukes | 55c | 962.05$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.42 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 70c | 957.23$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.16 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ae…f107backed James Madison Dukes | 33c | 886.99$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.89 | 423 | 27.2%115 W · 308 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed James Madison Dukes | 3c | 536.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 368 | 45.7%168 W · 200 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed James Madison Dukes | 15c | 449.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.38 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 43c | 444.93$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.61 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed James Madison Dukes | 8c | 411.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed James Madison Dukes | 57c | 315.06$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.55 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 60c | 254.33$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.73 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 67c | 234.81$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.58 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed James Madison Dukes | 57c | 210$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked James Madison Dukes | 6c | 189$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked James Madison Dukes | 11c | 145.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…41f6backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 46c | 130.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.58 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 78c | 97.4$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 456 | 44.5%203 W · 253 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked James Madison Dukes | 41c | 71.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 614 | 46.1%283 W · 331 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…47a5backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 78c | 60.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…1e75backed James Madison Dukes | 56c | 56.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 323 | 43%139 W · 184 L | -18.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed James Madison Dukes | 29c | 48.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 668 | 31.4%210 W · 458 L | -43.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed James Madison Dukes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…04d0backed James Madison Dukes | 41c | 39.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked James Madison Dukes | 55c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed James Madison Dukes | 56c | 30.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 990 | 45.6%451 W · 539 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked James Madison Dukes | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 70c | 19.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Marshall Thundering Herd vs. James Madison Dukesthis page
- Marshall Thundering Herd vs. James Madison Dukes: O/U 155.5Under won
- Marshall Thundering Herd vs. James Madison Dukes: O/U 156.5Under won
- Spread: James Madison Dukes (-1.5)Marshall Thundering Herd won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.