Tennis · resolved market
ITF Brisbane: Destanee Aiava vs Natsuki Yoshimoto
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a6be4711a29920e084b4fcda62a5e67949f341bf8cffdf7f119ea687bb54e2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Destanee Aiavaof Destanee Aiava, Natsuki Yoshimoto
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf983…39a0backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 17c | 3,599$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.54 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 18c | 927.65$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.67 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7775…b9d5backed Destanee Aiava | 74c | 134.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 12c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 26c | 97.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Destanee Aiava | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Destanee Aiava | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Destanee Aiava | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Destanee Aiava | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 19c | 67.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 19c | 61.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Natsuki Yoshimoto | 18c | 57.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,175 | 52.9%622 W · 553 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Destanee Aiava | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 28c | 55.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Natsuki Yoshimoto | 24c | 45.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Destanee Aiava | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Destanee Aiava | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe01…b45dbacked Destanee Aiava | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 223 | 77.6%173 W · 50 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 77cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfb…7665backed Destanee Aiava | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x822c…a06abacked Destanee Aiava | 75c | 26.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 74cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Destanee Aiava | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Destanee Aiava | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Destanee Aiava | 73c | 14.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245f…cd88backed Destanee Aiava | 76c | 13.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF Brisbane: Destanee Aiava vs Natsuki Yoshimotothis page
- ITF Women Brisbane: Completed Match: Destanee Aiava vs Natsuki YoshimotoYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.