TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Savannah: Braden Shick vs Mitchell Krueger

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mitchell Kruegerof Braden Shick, Mitchell Krueger
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$141,825
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$152,424

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,825 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Braden Shick10c24,741$2,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,467.297,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Braden Shick7c14,001$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.238,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Braden Shick2c7,297$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.011,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f7b…7f37backed Mitchell Krueger70c5,478$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,628.35356.6%30 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Braden Shick16c4,204$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.346,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bc2…4c80backed Mitchell Krueger77c3,850$2,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$889.2446473.3%340 W · 124 L+27.0wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Braden Shick16c2,945$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.241,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Braden Shick14c2,650$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.894,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Braden Shick16c2,436$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.4938013.9%53 W · 327 L-38.3wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-55.2%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Braden Shick17c2,002$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.042,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Braden Shick15c1,993$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.613,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Braden Shick25c1,899$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.844,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cb2…f12fbacked Mitchell Krueger77c1,700$1,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.9836661.7%226 W · 140 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Braden Shick23c1,548$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.5685348.7%415 W · 438 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Braden Shick30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30097141.4%402 W · 569 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Braden Shick30c999.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30039534.4%136 W · 259 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb943…375bbacked Mitchell Krueger70c842.56$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.7717649.4%87 W · 89 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cee…0d1ebacked Braden Shick12c838.17$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4518849.5%93 W · 95 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae30…079ebacked Braden Shick35c801.75$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.6141645.4%189 W · 227 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Mitchell Krueger79c782.76$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.411,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dfe…a5d6backed Mitchell Krueger69c711.16$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.4650458.9%297 W · 207 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Mitchell Krueger76c579.5$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.266,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Braden Shick30c489.47$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.841,42155%782 W · 639 L+23.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Braden Shick29c479.58$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.087,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eaf…507bbacked Braden Shick23c465.58$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0818133.1%60 W · 121 L-14.8wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Braden Shick23c439.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.817460.3%105 W · 69 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4c9…9ee4backed Braden Shick24c397.67$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4435730.5%109 W · 248 L-11.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Braden Shick24c389.04$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.532,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Braden Shick14c373$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.222,41750.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L+78.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Braden Shick17c370.25$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.332,04946.8%958 W · 1,091 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e0b…4dd5backed Braden Shick35c361.34$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.4716136%58 W · 103 L-14.5wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Braden Shick24c352.65$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.993,67754.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L+107.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Braden Shick29c333.32$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.137,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a34…51fabacked Braden Shick9c324.77$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3722020%44 W · 176 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dbb…c0fdbacked Braden Shick34c319.59$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.819856.1%55 W · 43 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Mitchell Krueger71c300.16$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.211,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Braden Shick20c288.62$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.627836.3%101 W · 177 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Mitchell Krueger69c284.46$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.1829444.2%130 W · 164 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Braden Shick10c261.53$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.348,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Braden Shick18c259.4$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4256754.5%309 W · 258 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Braden Shick16c245.2$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.087,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…d2b5backed Braden Shick32c217.53$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6141668%283 W · 133 L+23.6wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Mitchell Krueger75c216.76$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.241,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d29…f683backed Braden Shick31c214$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3433647.3%159 W · 177 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Braden Shick31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6286835.4%307 W · 561 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Mitchell Krueger78c196.33$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.831,72552.2%901 W · 824 L-8.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Mitchell Krueger68c183.8$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.822,22945%1,002 W · 1,227 L+3.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1510…2402backed Braden Shick14c167.26$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa74c…1f49backed Mitchell Krueger75c166.66$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6614674%108 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick75cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd679…91a0backed Mitchell Krueger63c162.3$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.26683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick61cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed Mitchell Krueger77c148.93$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2530844.5%137 W · 171 L+1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda74…1ab0backed Braden Shick35c137.29$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0594549.6%469 W · 476 L-23.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Mitchell Krueger76c130.07$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.762,08252.3%1,088 W · 994 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22f9…f814backed Braden Shick29c127.13$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.874240.5%17 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78a1…5551backed Braden Shick19c121.76$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6390335.8%323 W · 580 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc7e…70ecbacked Braden Shick30c120$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.41,00145.4%454 W · 547 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Braden Shick20c118.32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.373,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Braden Shick23c114.46$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.321,10650.3%556 W · 550 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed Braden Shick31c108.55$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6512933.3%43 W · 86 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c8…d506backed Braden Shick23c103.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8515937.7%60 W · 99 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Braden Shick20c102.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2456817.4%99 W · 469 L-74.2wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Braden Shick38c99.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,24041.2%511 W · 729 L-2.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x448d…3adebacked Mitchell Krueger67c96.6$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8832247.2%152 W · 170 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc322…a836backed Mitchell Krueger72c96.35$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3110955%60 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Braden Shick20c95.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0459440.2%239 W · 355 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Braden Shick32c90.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9342344.2%187 W · 236 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa223…0894backed Braden Shick27c88.54$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.913135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc006…b241backed Braden Shick33c85.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb518…3403backed Mitchell Krueger69c84.91$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3214060%84 W · 56 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ad…7889backed Mitchell Krueger75c84.18$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.756070.7%396 W · 164 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x347a…83e3backed Braden Shick23c82.16$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1431339.9%125 W · 188 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa41…2239backed Braden Shick24c81.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3415751%80 W · 77 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f01…0d90backed Braden Shick30c78.45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5314443.1%62 W · 82 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x071f…92bdbacked Mitchell Krueger79c77.07$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.341,07673.8%794 W · 282 L+41.1wins+0.04per pick70cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc9c3…079fbacked Mitchell Krueger66c75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.589364.4%575 W · 318 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x362d…0c58backed Braden Shick14c73.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.649453.2%50 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14de…489cbacked Mitchell Krueger75c70.45$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3116870.8%119 W · 49 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e97…8504backed Braden Shick30c64.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.179659.4%57 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Braden Shick30c63.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.013,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e3…4874backed Mitchell Krueger78c60.27$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1391880.5%739 W · 179 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94ee…4a94backed Braden Shick20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.954748.9%23 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc1d9…3be3backed Braden Shick32c59.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1916459.8%98 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb37a…17c4backed Braden Shick32c59.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.195759.6%34 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Mitchell Krueger67c58.79$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.497745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba1a…85febacked Braden Shick33c58.74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1972651.8%376 W · 350 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed Braden Shick33c56.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.539044.4%40 W · 50 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3327…2f25backed Mitchell Krueger69c53.88$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6b3…5821backed Braden Shick32c53.81$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.278561.2%52 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9158…ba55backed Braden Shick30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525745.9%118 W · 139 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3092…789abacked Mitchell Krueger72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146068.3%41 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9416…98cfbacked Braden Shick29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.514536.6%53 W · 92 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72af…c833backed Braden Shick29c48.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.163450%17 W · 17 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+39.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc118…54c2backed Braden Shick33c47.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.681030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+76.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7061…b4aebacked Mitchell Krueger77c46.81$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7513856.5%78 W · 60 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3092…c9a8backed Braden Shick32c45.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5410552.4%55 W · 50 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0664…f7f0backed Braden Shick32c44.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.398241.5%34 W · 48 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Braden Shick26c42.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.841,14247.3%540 W · 602 L+65.6wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Braden Shick25c41.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.469,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Mitchell Krueger77c38.12$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8133661.3%206 W · 130 L+12.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29c4…c3b0backed Braden Shick32c37.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.896038.3%23 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.