Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a7451886d5ab5517ef27e86439a836a440379f754249f81691d4d072fc429ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4577…f436backed No | 79c | 848.2$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.85 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 23c | 664.25$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.01 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 636.36$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.43 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 33c | 404.52$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.72 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 291.49$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 276.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 61c | 263.43$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.23 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 19c | 235.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 22c | 186.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 181.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 19c | 176$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 14c | 159$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 20c | 151.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ccefbacked Yes | 22c | 134.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 133.6$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 20c | 124.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 20c | 124.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 16c | 104.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 15c | 98.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 22c | 90.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 17c | 89.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 76c | 73.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 45c | 68.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 79c | 67.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 73c | 67.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 67.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 80c | 60.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 20c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 35c | 40.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 79c | 39.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 39.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 78c | 34.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 31.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 71c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828a…9f87backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 68c | 22.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 66c | 21.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 79c | 21.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 77c | 19.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 66c | 16.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 78c | 15.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.