Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45214571ef49b6b3bc04ad75eda23d9d5952dd79f96b38d0b79a13bcb854d7f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,909
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,909 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 30c | 620.9$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.06 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 77c | 493.7$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.36 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 23c | 489.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.45 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 37c | 480.26$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.1 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 63c | 436.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.3 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 36c | 413.62$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.29 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 6c | 333.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 318.33$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.26 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 34c | 303.93$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…a036backed No | 73c | 274.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 15c | 251.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 30c | 237.73$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.56 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 66c | 227.42$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.93 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 221.4$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 214$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 77c | 208$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.76 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 200.09$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 185.25$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.15 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 59c | 169.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 32c | 165.7$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.88 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 43c | 165.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.93 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 154.35$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 37c | 153.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.68 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 143.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 65c | 126.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.78 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 63c | 126.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.02 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 66c | 113.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 67c | 109.01$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 31c | 105.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.12 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 42c | 99.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 64c | 98.1$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 35c | 96.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 37c | 96.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 40c | 95.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 35c | 94.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 36c | 92.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 17c | 86.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.72 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 23c | 85.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 31c | 84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 33c | 82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 30c | 78.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.63 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 61c | 73.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 58c | 70.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 15c | 69.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 69.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 55c | 69.47$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 25c | 69.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 35c | 68.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 37c | 63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…c03fbacked Yes | 37c | 61.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed Yes | 40c | 59.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 58.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ccefbacked Yes | 35c | 56.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 34c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 56c | 50.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 46c | 50.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 65c | 49.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 37c | 47.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a3…902dbacked Yes | 36c | 45.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed No | 67c | 44.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 37.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 55c | 36.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed No | 59c | 34.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 66c | 34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 36c | 33.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 62c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 61c | 31.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 42c | 28.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 68c | 28.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 27.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 26.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 58c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…2a14backed Yes | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 65c | 25.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 62c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 54c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 19.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fb…2c0cbacked Yes | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 63c | 15.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 71c | 15.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.