Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabaefeafa1af0cfaf45194f99652602bd49a7d74464e1c8a77867ab3a02bedf1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 76c | 330.19$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.4 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 224.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 25c | 211.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 205$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 43c | 199.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 198.33$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 66c | 195.36$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 180.04$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 58c | 172$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 28c | 168.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 137.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 48c | 120$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 103.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 26c | 96.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 95$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 47c | 91.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 78c | 83.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 80.82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 30c | 78.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 73.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 72.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 72.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 70c | 69.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed No | 56c | 67.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 54.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 73c | 54.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 50c | 50.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 24c | 50.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b2…a684backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 49.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 45.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 75c | 42.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 54c | 41.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 73c | 40.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 38.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 62c | 35.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked No | 80c | 34.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 31.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 58c | 24.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a3…902dbacked Yes | 68c | 23.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 76c | 20.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10bd…8ff6backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked No | 73c | 19.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 72c | 16.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…0e0bbacked No | 76c | 15.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 75c | 13.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on August 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.