Fifa International · resolved market
Croatia to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a8b77e3249fd6e7a494112d4447c2a187c3ccc34981b3738f589db69f5b8c19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 60c | 2,099$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.05 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf4…ac20backed No | 26c | 1,289$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.89 | 345 | 33.6%116 W · 229 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 56c | 1,159$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.61 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 54c | 1,107$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.21 | 201 | 86.1%173 W · 28 L | +46.2wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked No | 48c | 838.09$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.28 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 13c | 794$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.22 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 47c | 599.98$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.99 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed No | 45c | 584.36$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.96 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…ce17backed Yes | 58c | 508.62$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.62 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 39c | 484.69$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.34 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 30c | 455.07$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.3 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 42c | 297$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 42c | 297$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 46c | 254.92$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.25 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked No | 43c | 223.45$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 1,206 | 50.2%606 W · 600 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 26c | 215.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe250…ea7abacked Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 41c | 169.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc64f…ad00backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 129 | 58.9%76 W · 53 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…3cbebacked No | 43c | 163.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.21 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 42c | 148.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 42c | 142.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…2896backed Yes | 53c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 182 | 31.9%58 W · 124 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…2bfabacked Yes | 53c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 140 | 30.7%43 W · 97 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 51c | 88.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 876 | 51.1%448 W · 428 L | +25.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…3e8ebacked Yes | 63c | 79.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed No | 43c | 67.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 373 | 23.1%86 W · 287 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed No | 47c | 67.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 617 | 52%321 W · 296 L | -13.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5399…2b4fbacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 151 | 56.3%85 W · 66 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…2269backed No | 43c | 49.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7117…8858backed Yes | 53c | 23.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce74…e6ecbacked Yes | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 280 | 55%154 W · 126 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 77c | 19.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 173 | 57.8%100 W · 73 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e4…07b1backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 183 | 43.7%80 W · 103 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Croatia to win the second half?this page
- Panama to win the second half?No won
- Panama vs. Croatia: Second half draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.